FDD trend analysis tracking Item 19 performance deltas, royalty burden, litigation signals, territory saturation, and franchisee turnover across 30 US franchise brands. Every data point is sourced from publicly filed Franchise Disclosure Documents — no broker estimates, no LLM-generated numbers. Last refresh: May 10, 2026. Source: FranchiseStack Franchise Database, FDD Items 3, 6, 12, 19, and 20.
The clearest return compression signals in 2026 are in Subway (total fee load now 13.5%, AUV down 4.1% YoY per Item 19, highest net termination rate of any QSR tracked), Orangetheory Fitness (net unit count declining for second consecutive year in Item 20, metro saturation accelerating), and Anytime Fitness (Item 20 terminations up 18% YoY, 52 new litigation filings in Item 3 trailing data).
The strongest widening-returns signals are in Chick-fil-A (AUV up 6.0% to ~$8.9M, fee burden flat, zero net closures), Wingstop (AUV up 11.1%, unit growth +12.5%, near-zero Item 3 litigation changes), and Take 5 Oil Change (AUV up ~8%, semi-absentee friendly, territory supply still open in most markets).
Source: FDD Item 6, 12, 19, and 20 filings reviewed by FranchiseStack Research Team. Data as of May 2026. Not investment advice.
| Brand | Category | Item 19 YoY | Royalty Burden | Litigation | Territory | Turnover | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chick-fil-A | Food & Beverage | +6.0% | 15.0% | Stable | Invite-only | Minimal | ↑ |
| Wingstop | Food & Beverage | +11.1% | 9.0% | Stable | Open | Minimal | ↑ |
| Jersey Mike's | Food & Beverage | +5.2% | 8.5% | Stable | Tightening | Low | ↑ |
| Crumbl Cookies | Food & Beverage | +3.8% | 10.0% | ↓ Declining | Tightening | Moderate | ↑ |
| Dunkin' | Food & Beverage | +1.2% | 9.9% | Stable | Saturated | Moderate | → |
| McDonald's | Food & Beverage | +2.1% | 10.0% | Stable | Saturated | Low | → |
| Smoothie King | Food & Beverage | +2.4% | 8.0% | Stable | Open | Moderate | → |
| Subway | Food & Beverage | −4.1% | 13.5% | ↑ Rising | Saturated | High | ↓ |
| Planet Fitness | Fitness | +4.2% | 9.0% | Stable | Tightening | Low | ↑ |
| Body Fit Training | Fitness | +9.1% | 9.0% | Stable | Open | Low | ↑ |
| F45 Training | Fitness | −0.8% | 8.0% | ↑ Rising | Tightening | Elevated | → |
| Orangetheory Fitness | Fitness | −3.2% | 10.0% | ↑ Rising | Saturated | High | ↓ |
| Anytime Fitness | Fitness | +0.4% | 8.0% | ↑ Rising | Saturated | High | ↓ |
| Take 5 Oil Change | Automotive | +8.0% | 7.5% | Stable | Open | Minimal | ↑ |
| Christian Brothers Auto | Automotive | +4.8% | 5.5% | ↓ Declining | Open | Low | ↑ |
| Jiffy Lube | Automotive | +1.5% | 8.0% | Stable | Tightening | Moderate | → |
| Valvoline Instant Oil | Automotive | +2.8% | 7.5% | Stable | Tightening | Low | → |
| Jan-Pro | Home Services | +5.5% | 14.0% | Stable | Open | Low | ↑ |
| Restoration 1 | Home Services | +6.2% | 11.0% | Stable | Open | Moderate | ↑ |
| Servpro | Home Services | +2.0% | 12.0% | Stable | Tightening | Moderate | → |
| TruGreen / Lawn Care | Home Services | +1.8% | 10.0% | Stable | Open | Low | → |
| Visiting Angels | Senior Care | +5.0% | 4.5% | Stable | Open | Low | ↑ |
| Right at Home | Senior Care | +4.1% | 5.5% | Stable | Open | Low | ↑ |
| Home Instead | Senior Care | +2.3% | 5.5% | Stable | Tightening | Moderate | → |
| The UPS Store | Retail | +4.5% | 8.5% | Stable | Tightening | Low | ↑ |
| Great Clips | Retail | +1.0% | 7.0% | Stable | Saturated | Low | → |
| Sport Clips | Retail | −1.4% | 7.5% | ↑ Rising | Saturated | Elevated | ↓ |
| StretchLab | Fitness | −2.1% | 9.5% | ↑ Rising | Tightening | Elevated | ↓ |
| HOTWORX | Fitness | −3.5% | 9.5% | ↑ Rising | Tightening | Elevated | ↓ |
| Tim Hortons | Food & Beverage | +1.7% | 9.0% | Stable | Tightening | Moderate | → |
Item 19 YoY: Year-over-year AUV change where disclosed in FDD Item 19; blank = no Item 19 filed. Royalty Burden: Total of royalty + advertising/marketing fund + technology fee from FDD Item 6. Litigation: Item 3 new filings trend vs. prior year FDD. Territory: Item 12 availability assessment per FranchiseStack territory database (May 2026). Turnover: Item 20 net terminations + non-renewals as a % of system size, trailing 12 months. Data as of May 2026. All figures from publicly filed FDDs — FTC FDD guidance here. Not investment advice.
These five brands show the clearest combination of rising Item 19 AUV, stable or falling royalty burden, minimal litigation, and healthy franchisee retention in Item 20. Each one meets at least three of the five positive signal criteria.
Wingstop is the clearest returns-widening story in QSR right now. Item 19 AUV jumped from $1.8M to ~$2.0M YoY — driven by digital ordering penetration (now 68% of sales) and menu price realization. Unit growth is accelerating, not decelerating — Item 20 shows 12.5% net unit growth with a termination rate well below 2%. Total fee burden is unchanged at 9.0%. The major risk: territory supply is tightening in top 50 metros. New investors should evaluate secondary and tertiary markets. Source: Wingstop FDD Item 19, 2026 filing; FranchiseStack Wingstop analysis.
Take 5's express oil change model — no appointment, 10-minute service, stay-in-your-car — continues to capture market share from traditional service centers. AUV growth of ~8% on an already-profitable base indicates pricing power, not just volume. The semi-absentee model (manager-run, typically 1 full-time employee + part-timers) makes it one of the few QSR-adjacent brands where an active investor isn't required daily. Item 20 shows the highest unit growth rate of any automotive brand tracked. Territory supply is still genuinely open in most non-coastal markets. Source: Take 5 Oil Change FDD Item 6, 19, 20; Take 5 vs. Valvoline comparison.
Chick-fil-A is the anomaly: a 15% total fee burden (the highest of any QSR by far) that still produces widening returns because AUV is extraordinary. $8.9M AUV at 15% royalty still leaves more operating profit per unit than most QSR brands at 6% royalty and $1.5M AUV. The key caveat: Chick-fil-A is not a typical franchise — operators are employees, not owners, and units are not transferable as assets. For investors seeking equity-building returns, the widening AUV signal is relevant as a benchmark, not a direct investment thesis. Source: Chick-fil-A FDD Item 19, 2026.
Visiting Angels continues to lead senior care franchise economics: the 4.5% total fee burden is the lowest of any tracked brand with AUV above $1M, and the aging US population drives structural demand growth that is independent of any brand positioning. AUV is up ~5% YoY, and Item 20 shows terminations below 3% of system size annually. Territory supply remains genuinely open in most non-coastal markets — the demographic tailwind (65+ population growing 10,000/day in the US) means most markets are underpenetrated. Source: Visiting Angels FDD Item 6, 19; FranchiseStack Senior Care benchmark data.
Christian Brothers Automotive is the only automotive franchise in our dataset with declining Item 3 litigation while growing AUV. The franchise is value-aligned (faith-based culture, closed Sundays) which self-selects franchisees with lower conflict rates — reflected in Item 3. 5.5% total burden is among the lowest in full-service automotive. Territory is open in most non-coastal markets. The investment range ($596K–$690K) is moderate for the AUV it delivers. Source: Christian Brothers Automotive FDD; Automotive franchise comparisons.
These five brands carry at least two negative signal flags: declining Item 19 AUV or flat AUV with rising burden, elevated Item 3 litigation, territory saturation, or high Item 20 turnover. Not all are bad businesses — some are recovering or restructuring — but the risk-adjusted return profile has deteriorated from prior years.
Subway's unit economics are under structural pressure from three directions simultaneously: AUV is declining (small-footprint QSR under consumer preference shift to premium subs and bowls), the fee load is the highest in QSR at 13.5% effective, and the system is closing more units than it opens in the US. Item 20 shows the highest net termination rate of any brand in our QSR cohort. The new ownership (Roark Capital, 2023) is making menu and tech investments, but the AUV decline predates those changes. For prospective investors, the low entry cost ($220K–$520K) is offset by thin unit economics at current AUV levels. Source: Subway FDD Item 6, 19, 20.
Orangetheory's expansion model ran ahead of sustainable demand in major metros. Studio density in cities like New York, LA, and Chicago is now cannibalizing adjacent unit performance. Item 20 shows net US unit count declining for two consecutive years — a critical flag because shrinking systems mean lower franchisor support infrastructure per unit. AUV is down 3.2% YoY. The 10% total fee burden on $1.21M AUV leaves operating margins thin. Litigation is rising, reflecting franchisee strain. Source: Orangetheory FDD Item 19, 20; Fitness franchise comparison.
Anytime Fitness is the largest 24/7 gym franchise by unit count, which creates a structural challenge: the system is too saturated in most US markets for new units to achieve the AUV needed to justify the investment. Item 20 terminations are up 18% YoY — the sharpest single-year jump of any fitness brand tracked. AUV growth is essentially flat in nominal terms (negative in real terms after inflation). The rising litigation count in Item 3 (52 new filings in trailing 12 months per latest FDD) indicates operator distress. Source: Anytime Fitness FDD Item 3, 19, 20.
HOTWORX was flagged by the FTC in 2024 along with other Xponential Fitness brands for FDD disclosure issues. The subsequent regulatory scrutiny, combined with declining AUV (−3.5% YoY), creates a compressing-returns signal that is reinforced by the broader Xponential portfolio instability. The infrared sauna workout concept has a dedicated following but a narrow addressable market — important context for territory viability analysis. The 9.5% total fee burden on sub-$325K AUV makes margin thin. Source: HOTWORX FDD; FTC Xponential enforcement disclosure (2024).
Sport Clips faces the same market dynamics as Great Clips but without Great Clips' higher AUV base. Value haircut chains are under margin pressure from both sides: rising labor costs (stylists) and consumer price sensitivity at the low-cost end. AUV declined 1.4% YoY — the first consecutive-year decline since 2020. Item 20 shows elevated non-renewals in high-density suburban markets. The rising Item 3 litigation count (mostly franchisee disputes over territory encroachment in overbuilt markets) is the most actionable signal for prospective investors evaluating locations. Source: Sport Clips FDD Item 3, 19, 20 (2026).
Item 3 covers pending actions and administrative proceedings. A single lawsuit doesn't signal a systemic problem. What matters is the trend: rising filings, class action activity, or FTC/state AG involvement are the flags that matter to return compression risk.
Saturation compresses returns by reducing AUV per unit while fixed costs remain constant. We track saturation using the ratio of franchise locations per 100,000 population, from our territory analysis database covering 384 CBSAs.
Fitness density in the top 25 US metros has exceeded sustainable AUV thresholds for most low-cost gym concepts. New York, LA, Chicago, Dallas, and Atlanta now average more than 1 fitness studio per 8,500 people — compared to a profitable density benchmark of 1 per 15,000. Brands most affected: Orangetheory, Anytime Fitness, StretchLab, HOTWORX. Brands least affected (semi-private or appointment models): Body Fit Training, F45 (where litigation isn't rising). Source: FranchiseStack territory database, 384-CBSA coverage, updated May 2026.
Value haircut chains expanded aggressively into suburban strip centers throughout 2018–2022. Many of those markets are now at saturation: Great Clips and Sport Clips combined density exceeds 1 location per 12,000 people in the top 100 suburban markets. Item 20 non-renewal rates in these markets are running 2–3x the national average for both brands. New investors looking at either brand should run a territory analysis against the FranchiseStack location database before committing. Source: FranchiseStack franchise_locations and franchise_penetration tables, updated May 2026.
Home services and senior care remain the two categories with the lowest franchise density relative to addressable demand. Senior care: the 65+ US population is growing 10,000 people per day, and the home care market is projected to grow 8% annually through 2030 per IBIS World. Home restoration (water damage, fire remediation) is driven by insurance claims — largely recession-resistant. Both categories have territory availability in 75%+ of US CBSAs per our territory database. Source: FranchiseStack territory database; IBIS World Home Care industry report (2025); US Census Bureau 65+ population projections.
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Analyze a Territory Analyze an FDDEvery metric in this report is derived from publicly filed Franchise Disclosure Documents. No broker estimates, no survey data, no LLM-generated numbers. Signals are directional — they indicate trend, not precise returns. Here's what each signal measures and where it comes from: